Two figures sit facing each other at a table in a wide steppe at dusk: one a dark silhouette, the other glowing white

Article · 5 min read

The middle is disappearing.

AI isn’t destroying the agency. It’s destroying the middle.

There is a comfortable story the industry is telling itself right now: AI is a tool. We use it. We become more efficient. And in the end we are stronger than before. The story isn’t wrong. But it is incomplete.

Because AI doesn’t only change how agencies work. It changes which agencies are still needed at all. What is repetitive disappears. What has no clear competence loses its reason to exist. What remains are the ends of the spectrum: the specialists and the networks. The middle in between is shrinking. Not dramatically. Not overnight. But structurally and unstoppably. What follows is not analysis. These are findings. Pointed, because the situation demands it. Sharpened, because the middle leaves no more room for indecision. A guide in six quote cards.

The middle in between is shrinking. Not dramatically. Not overnight. But structurally and unstoppably.
Two figures stand on either side of a deep crevice in a wide landscape: one a dark silhouette, the other glowing white

Whoever is there for everyone is indispensable to no one.

For decades, the agency landscape settled comfortably in the middle. Full service wasn’t a promise, it was an avoidance strategy. Whoever offers everything never has to choose. Whoever never chooses never has to explain themselves. That worked as long as clients were willing to pay for convenience. That time is over. The GWA Frühjahrsmonitor 2026 documents a growing divide between agencies that turn change to their advantage and those that don’t.

Efficiency is not a differentiator, it’s the price of admission.

Generative AI has lowered the production costs of standard services to a level that would have been unthinkable just five years ago. Text variants, format adaptations, simple visual worlds: tools do all of this faster and cheaper than any team. Williamson’s transaction cost theory describes this mechanism precisely: when the costs of internal coordination fall through technology, the make-or-buy boundary shifts to the disadvantage of the external agency. What is repetitive and standardizable moves back into the hierarchy. Or goes to platforms. Agencies that have defined their value through these services are losing the basis for their prices. Not because they have become worse. But because the market price for what they do is tending toward zero.

Specialization is not a limitation. It’s the only protection.

What can’t be standardized can’t be automated. Deep industry knowledge built up over years. A signature that is unmistakable. The ability to see things in a particular context that others overlook. Barney’s resource-based view (1991) describes exactly these qualities as sustainable competitive advantages: valuable, rare, hard to imitate, non-substitutable. The boutique that is better than everyone else at exactly one thing. And sleeps more soundly than the agency that is good at many things.

Size only protects those who are truly big.

On the other side of the spectrum are the networks. Global coordination, international campaigns, proprietary technologies. These are services that small agencies structurally cannot provide. According to the World Federation of Advertisers, two thirds of multinational companies now have their own in-house agency units. An increase of 16 percentage points since 2020. This development hits the middle harder than the extremes: whoever has neither the scalability of a network nor the depth of a specialist agency loses on both sides at once.

The middle is not a business model. It’s a postponement.

What is happening right now is not a crisis. It’s a correction. The market is sorting itself along a logic that has always held true, but was long covered up by growth and convenience. The empirical findings of the master’s thesis confirm this from the client’s perspective: not one of the decision-makers surveyed still believes in the agency for everything. Whoever can’t clearly name their value loses it. Not to AI. Not to the competition. But to their own indecision.

The question is not whether you position yourself. The question is whether you do it in time.

There are agencies that have already made this decision. They know what they can do, what they can’t do and what they will never try. They have stopped joining every pitch and started turning down the right ones. These agencies are growing. Not because the market has become easier, but because clarity in a moment of confusion is the strongest competitive advantage you can have.

State of research

The transaction cost theory of Coase (1937) and Williamson (1985) provides the economic explanation for the current market shakeout: companies outsource services when external coordination costs are lower than internal ones. When these costs fall through digitization and AI-supported automation, the make-or-buy boundary shifts to the disadvantage of the external agency. This mechanism explains structurally why in-housing of operational standard services is not a passing trend but an economic consequence. Barney’s resource-based view (1991) describes which agencies survive nonetheless: those offering resources that can’t be replicated internally, being valuable, rare, hard to imitate and non-substitutable. This applies to highly specialized boutiques and to integrated networks, but not to a middle without a clear unique selling point. The empirical findings of the master’s thesis (Walter, 2026) confirm this polarization from the client’s perspective: not one of the eleven decision-makers surveyed still believes in the all-round agency. WFA & Observatory International (2023) document that two thirds of multinational companies already operate their own in-house agency units, an increase of 16 percentage points since 2020.

Figures

  • 66%

    of multinational companies already have their own in-house agency units (WFA & Observatory International, 2023)

  • 21%

    are also considering setting up their own unit (WFA, 2023)

  • 49%

    of agencies see AI substitution as a barrier to growth (GWA Frühjahrsmonitor, 2026)

  • 11%

    of companies consider their existing agency model fit for the future (WFA)

  • 43.7%

    of agencies report revenue growth, but 50.7% report declines: the market is splitting (GWA, 2026)

Direct quotes

What this means in practice

The most important strategic decision agencies have to make now is not a technology decision. It’s a positioning decision: boutique or network? Specialist or integrator? Whoever doesn’t decide is deciding for the middle, and the middle is shrinking. Specifically, that means naming your core competence radically and communicating it consistently. Handing over services outside this competence transparently to specialized partners. And reading in-housing not as a threat, but as an opportunity to focus your own contribution on what no internal team can ever replicate.

The middle is disappearing.

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Two figures sit facing each other at a table in a wide steppe at dusk: one a dark silhouette, the other glowing white

The middle is not a business model. It’s a postponement.

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